Luka Dončić used an ad in Wednesday’s Los Angeles Times to open the season with a promise: “Dear LA, tonight we start our run for a championship.” Nobody should doubt that he means it.
The real question is whether a roster rebuilt after LeBron James left for Philadelphia can make that run real, or whether Dončić is promising more than it can back up.
Dončić Has Already Won With Less
The best argument for believing him is Dončić himself. In 2025-26 he led the entire league in scoring at 33.5 points per game, finished third in assists at 8.3, and placed fourth in MVP voting.
He also took a Dallas team that was +4500 to win outright at one point all the way to the 2024 Finals. That is close to where this Lakers team sits now.
The supporting cast also looks better on paper. Even without Dončić, last spring’s Lakers won their first-round series over Houston 4-2. The front office answered the center problem by acquiring Walker Kessler from Utah for two future first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps.
The offense with Dončić on the floor is already elite. The Lakers owned a 119.4 offensive rating with Dončić on the floor last season, which dropped to a 111.9 offensive rating with him off the court.
The 53 Wins Were Softer Than They Looked
That 53-29 record is the main reason for optimism, and it doesn’t hold up well. Los Angeles finished with only a +1.8 net rating last season, and its expected record was 45-37.
Oklahoma City then swept them in the playoffs. That team also still had James, who is now gone.
The bet on Kessler carries its own risk. He is coming off a season in which shoulder surgery limited him to five games, and over the past two seasons he played just 63 games for Utah.
A defense built around a center who has struggled to stay healthy is a hope, not a sure thing.
Dončić’s own availability is the biggest problem. He has appeared in just 114 of a possible 164 regular-season contests over the past two years.
Last season ended on April 2, when he stayed in a blowout loss and suffered the hamstring strain that cost him the playoffs. He has since said “I definitely regret it.” A title run needs him on the floor in May, and he hasn’t managed that the past two years.
The betting market agrees. The Lakers carry a 46.5-win total, and at +3500 to win the 2027 championship they sit well behind the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Within the West alone, they trail the Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets, and Timberwolves.
A Second-Round Team Until the Defense Proves Otherwise
Both sides have a real case, but they aren’t equally strong. The case for a title rests on one player being great enough to cover for everything else, and Dallas showed that can happen.
The case against rests on numbers: a net rating that pointed to about 45 wins, a playoff sweep, a new center coming off surgery, and a franchise player who has missed nearly a third of his games over two seasons.
The verdict: Dončić’s commitment is real, but this roster is a playoff team that might win a round, not a contender. Calling it a championship run is something to aim for, not a fair description of the team.
Two things would change that verdict. The first is Kessler staying healthy into the new year with the Lakers defending at a top-10 level. The second is Dončić reaching the All-Star break without a soft-tissue injury.
If both happen, the 35-1 price will start to look too long, and the promise in the Times ad will look a lot more realistic.
Leave a Reply