Kerr’s Avalanche Theory Lets the Warriors Off Too Easy

Golden State led Memphis by 12 with 3:47 left on Friday and lost 111-108. Steve Kerr’s postgame read was that “eight different things had to happen,” and that if any one of them hadn’t, the Warriors win: “It was just an avalanche.” He also turned to the officiating, saying the Warriors “probably had six illegal screens tonight” and that the flopping made it look like “guys were going down like they had been hit by a car.”

Most of that holds up. Two of the biggest swings in the run do not, and both of them belonged to the Warriors.

The Misses Really Were Just Misses

A lot of the run was the other team making plays. Cameron Boozer powered through fellow rookie Yaxel Lendeborg and De’Anthony Melton on back-to-back possessions, earning and hitting four free throws. Ty Jerome drilled a corner 3 after a loose-ball scramble with 1:24 left, and Boozer won it on a turnaround jumper with 20.1 seconds left.

The cold streak fits Kerr’s version too. Golden State missed its last nine field-goal attempts, and the players taking them were the ones this team wants shooting in that moment. Late-game droughts like that happen to good teams.

ESPN Research ranked the 17-0 run as the second-longest fourth-quarter run by a Warriors opponent under Kerr, behind Houston’s 21-0 close in 2018. Even a Kerr team that won titles has given up a run like this before.

The Four Free Points Came From Golden State

The trouble is that the two biggest swings weren’t missed shots. Curry was overzealous on a closeout in the corner and fouled Jaylen Wells on a made 3, giving the Grizzlies four quick points. ESPN’s Anthony Slater described it as the play where Curry made the initial mistake. A four-point play is what turns a game you’re closing out into a game you have to survive.

Then, down two, Draymond Green was called for setting an illegal screen near half court, and Kerr was upset enough with the call that he yelled at the officials and received a technical. Jerome made the free throw.

Kerr may well be right that Memphis was selling contact, and he has had the officials on his mind since the opener. But losing his temper with the game on the line gave Memphis a free point and ended any real chance of tying it. You can blame the officials for the whistle. You can’t blame them for the technical.

Curry’s Quiet Fourth Quarters Are the Real Story

Underneath the sequence is something that should worry Golden State more than any one call. Curry led the team with 24 points and then did not score after an early fourth-quarter three. When Curry goes quiet late, nobody else on this roster reliably creates a good shot.

It wasn’t a one-off. In the opener he shot 7-of-9 from the field in the first quarter and 0-for-6 after it, and the Warriors lost that one by 22. Two games is a trend to track, not a finding, but it is the same shape twice.

The next test comes immediately, and without him. Curry said he probably won’t play Saturday at Phoenix, which means the Warriors will play a full game with the problem that actually sank them on Friday: finding points when their best scorer isn’t producing them.

Sources: Anthony Slater (ESPN), ESPN Research

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