The Los Angeles Lakers did not have a drafting problem from 2014 on. They had a keeping problem. They drafted Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Ivica Zubac, Kyle Kuzma and Josh Hart, and almost all of the value those players produced landed somewhere else.
They also missed, sometimes badly. The 2014 class held a three-time MVP at No. 41. Here is every Lakers pick since 2014, redone with hindsight, plus a 2007 sidebar on a second-round pick that helped win two titles.
How the Re-Draft Works
- Each pick is judged on its own. The pool is every player taken at that slot or later in the same draft. No chained alternate history: taking Devin Booker in 2015 doesn’t erase the 2016 pick.
- Career Win Shares decide it. When Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) and All-Star or All-NBA honors both point to a different player, that player wins instead.
- Fit is not a factor. No “but he fit next to Kobe” arguments. Best career value, period.
- Numbers are through Oct. 28, 2026. Picks from 2022 on have small samples, and 2026 is too early to call.
Every Lakers Pick, Redone
| Year | Pick | Lakers took | Re-draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 7 | Julius Randle | Nikola Jokić (No. 41) |
| 2014 | 46 | Jordan Clarkson | Jordan Clarkson |
| 2015 | 2 | D’Angelo Russell | Devin Booker (No. 13) |
| 2015 | 27 | Larry Nance Jr. | Montrezl Harrell (No. 32) |
| 2015 | 34 | Anthony Brown | Norman Powell (No. 46) |
| 2016 | 2 | Brandon Ingram | Domantas Sabonis (No. 11) |
| 2016 | 32 | Ivica Zubac | Ivica Zubac |
| 2017 | 2 | Lonzo Ball | Jayson Tatum (No. 3) |
| 2017 | 27 | Kyle Kuzma | Derrick White (No. 29) |
| 2017 | 30 | Josh Hart | Josh Hart |
| 2017 | 42 | Thomas Bryant | Isaiah Hartenstein (No. 43) |
| 2018 | 25 | Moritz Wagner | Jalen Brunson (No. 33) |
| 2018 | 39 | Isaac Bonga | Bruce Brown (No. 42) |
| 2018 | 47 | Svi Mykhailiuk | Shake Milton (No. 54) |
| 2019 | 4 | De’Andre Hunter (for New Orleans) | Daniel Gafford (No. 38) |
| 2019 | 46 | Talen Horton-Tucker | Terance Mann (No. 48) |
| 2020 | 28 | Jaden McDaniels (traded) | Desmond Bane (No. 30) |
| 2021 | 22 | Isaiah Jackson (for Indiana) | Ayo Dosunmu (No. 38) |
| 2022 | 35 | Max Christie | Moussa Diabaté (No. 43) |
| 2023 | 17 | Jalen Hood-Schifino | Brandin Podziemski (No. 19) |
| 2023 | 40 | Maxwell Lewis | Toumani Camara (No. 52) |
| 2024 | 17 | Dalton Knecht | Ajay Mitchell (No. 38) |
| 2024 | 55 | Bronny James | Too early |
| 2025 | 36 | Adou Thiero (acquired) | Too early |
| 2025 | 55 | Lachlan Olbrich (traded) | Too early |
| 2026 | 24 | Cameron Carr (acquired) | Too early |
2014: The Jokić Miss
No. 7: Julius Randle. Re-draft: Nikola Jokić. Randle was a fine pick. He has 57.2 career Win Shares, three All-Star selections and two All-NBA teams. He made all of them after the Lakers renounced his rights in 2018. Jokić went 34 picks later and has 143.2 Win Shares, 82.2 VORP, three MVPs and a title. The whole league let him slide to the second round. The Lakers just had the best seat to stop it.
No. 46: Jordan Clarkson. Re-draft: Clarkson. The Lakers bought this pick from Washington on draft night and got the best player left in the draft from No. 46 on. Clarkson’s 26.0 Win Shares beat the next-best player in that range by about 24.
2015: Booker Was Sitting There
No. 2: D’Angelo Russell. Re-draft: Devin Booker. Russell has 26.5 Win Shares and one All-Star selection, earned in Brooklyn after the Lakers attached him to Timofey Mozgov’s contract. Booker went No. 13 and has 58.3 Win Shares, 20.2 VORP, five All-Star selections and two All-NBA teams.
No. 27: Larry Nance Jr. Re-draft: Montrezl Harrell. Nance is a real player at 35.2 Win Shares, but Harrell (42.9) leads the pool on both measures. The Lakers eventually signed Harrell in 2020, then traded him in the Russell Westbrook deal.
No. 34: Anthony Brown. Re-draft: Norman Powell. Brown played 41 games and finished below replacement level. Powell went No. 46 and has 36.6 Win Shares, a title and a 2026 All-Star nod.
2016: Sabonis, Not Brown
No. 2: Brandon Ingram. Re-draft: Domantas Sabonis. The popular answer is Jaylen Brown, who went third and owns a Finals MVP. The numbers say Sabonis: 71.6 Win Shares and 27.8 VORP, against Brown’s 47.8 and 14.1. Ingram (31.8 Win Shares, two All-Star selections) was most valuable to the Lakers as the centerpiece of the Anthony Davis trade.
No. 32: Ivica Zubac. Re-draft: Zubac. This is the most painful entry on the list, because the Lakers got it right. Zubac’s 55.7 Win Shares rank third in the entire 2016 class. The Lakers traded him to the Clippers in 2019 for Mike Muscala, who played 17 games for them.
2017: Tatum Over the Local Kid
No. 2: Lonzo Ball. Re-draft: Jayson Tatum. Jarrett Allen (No. 22) actually leads this class in Win Shares, 73.1 to Tatum’s 67.0. Tatum wins on VORP (30.3 to 19.4) and honors: six All-Star selections, five All-NBA teams and a title. Ball has 13.3 Win Shares.
Nos. 27, 28 and 30: the Lakers’ best night. They took Kyle Kuzma at No. 27, then flipped No. 28 (Tony Bradley) to Utah for Nos. 30 and 42. The best two players available at 27 were Derrick White (No. 29, 46.7 Win Shares) and Josh Hart (No. 30, 42.9). They got one of them. Hart went to New Orleans in the Davis trade.
No. 42: Thomas Bryant. Re-draft: Isaiah Hartenstein. The next pick, No. 43, has 33.3 Win Shares to Bryant’s 22.7.
2018: Brunson Was at 33
The Lakers’ own first-rounder that year was No. 10. It went out in the 2012 Steve Nash trade and passed from Phoenix to Philadelphia, which drafted Mikal Bridges with it and traded him to Phoenix.
No. 25: Moritz Wagner. Re-draft: Jalen Brunson. Wagner has 18.1 Win Shares and was dumped to Washington to clear cap room for the Davis trade. Brunson went eight picks later and has 54.3 Win Shares, three All-Star selections, three All-NBA teams and the 2026 Finals MVP.
No. 39: Isaac Bonga. Re-draft: Bruce Brown. Brown (No. 42) has 22.9 Win Shares; Bonga has 1.7.
No. 47: Svi Mykhailiuk. Re-draft: Shake Milton. A thin pool. Milton has 11.7 Win Shares, and the Lakers ended up trading for him in 2024 anyway.
2019 to 2021: Picks That Paid for Davis and Westbrook
2019, No. 4: De’Andre Hunter (for New Orleans). Re-draft: Daniel Gafford. The Lakers’ pick went to New Orleans in the Davis deal. It’s a thin pool. Gafford, a No. 38 pick, leads it in Win Shares (35.7). Tyler Herro leads in VORP (9.3) and Darius Garland has the most All-Star selections (two), so neither clears the bar to overrule Win Shares. Hunter sits at 13.2 Win Shares and -2.0 VORP.
2019, No. 46: Talen Horton-Tucker. Re-draft: Terance Mann. Two picks later, 23.3 Win Shares to 6.0.
2020, No. 28: Jaden McDaniels. Re-draft: Desmond Bane. The Lakers sent this pick with Danny Green to Oklahoma City for Dennis Schröder, who lasted one season. Bane went two picks later and has 32.9 Win Shares; McDaniels has 23.8.
2021, No. 22: Isaiah Jackson (for Indiana). Re-draft: Ayo Dosunmu. This pick went out in the Westbrook trade. Dosunmu (No. 38) has 17.8 Win Shares to Jackson’s 10.5.
2022 to 2026: Too Soon, With One Exception
Small samples, so read these as early returns. The 2022 first went to New Orleans in the Davis trade. Max Christie (No. 35) trails Moussa Diabaté (No. 43), 6.6 Win Shares to 11.9.
The exception is 2023. Jalen Hood-Schifino at No. 17 is already a clear miss. He played 23 games as a Laker before going to Utah in the Luka Dončić trade and has -0.6 career Win Shares. Brandin Podziemski went two picks later and has 13.6. Maxwell Lewis (No. 40) trails Toumani Camara (No. 52), -0.2 to 12.4.
Dalton Knecht (No. 17 in 2024) has 3.1 Win Shares to Ajay Mitchell’s 6.8. Bronny James (No. 55) and the 2025 picks, Adou Thiero and Lachlan Olbrich, are too early to judge. In 2026 the Lakers traded their own No. 25 pick in a four-team deal and came away with Cameron Carr, taken No. 24 by New York, who hasn’t played yet.
2007 Sidebar: The Pick That Bought Two Titles
The Lakers took Javaris Crittenton at No. 19 in 2007. He finished with 0.1 career Win Shares. At No. 48, they took Marc Gasol, who finished with 85.3 Win Shares, three All-Star selections, two All-NBA teams and a Defensive Player of the Year award. He was the best player drafted after No. 18 that year.
Both went to Memphis in February 2008 in the trade for Pau Gasol. Pau anchored back-to-back titles. That is the one case where trading away the right pick was worth it.
The Verdict
The Lakers hit the best available player three times since 2014: Clarkson, Zubac and Hart. All three were traded or allowed to leave before their best years. Their two worst misses, Jokić and Brunson, were second-round picks the whole league let slide. The real cost came after the draft, when the players they did pick turned into trade filler.
Sources: Basketball-Reference draft pages for 2007 and 2014–2026 and the Lakers’ draft history; Wikipedia draft pages for trade details. Career Win Shares and VORP are through Oct. 28, 2026.
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