Luka Dončić opened the post-LeBron era with a full-page ad in the Los Angeles Times that declared, “Tonight we start our run for a championship.” Then the Lakers beat Golden State by 22.
The question is whether this is a championship team in 2026-27 or a very good team whose star is setting the bar on purpose. The evidence points to the second.
Why the Title Talk Isn’t Crazy
Start with the best player. Last season Dončić averaged an NBA-leading 33.5 points, earned his sixth All-NBA First Team selection and helped Los Angeles finish 53-29. He’s 27, and he says he’s healthy. Teams with a top-five player and a functioning roster can make a real playoff run.
The center problem that dogged the last two seasons also looks fixed, at least on night one. In the 127-105 opener, Dončić led the way with 28 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, while new center Walker Kessler delivered a spectacular debut. Kessler went 12-for-12 from the field and scored 26.
The demand has also been building for a while. Dončić made clear in June that he expected the Lakers to present a near-immediate path to championship contention. The front office had spent two years promising the summer of 2026, and holding them to that promise is reasonable.
The Roster Doesn’t Match the Rhetoric
The summer delivered a rebuild, not a jump in talent. Austin Reaves was the only free agent the Lakers re-signed, and the front office otherwise remade the roster around Dončić.
The additions included Kessler, Kevon Looney, Collin Sexton, Jaden Hardy, Sandro Mamukelashvili and the wing group of Quentin Grimes, Matisse Thybulle and Ziaire Williams. Those are useful players, but none of them is a second star. LeBron James left for Philadelphia, and the Lakers didn’t bring in a player at that level to replace him.
The betting market prices them that way. BetMGM set the win total at 46.5, which is lower than last year’s 53. DraftKings had the Lakers at +3500 for the title, or about 2.8%, with San Antonio and Oklahoma City as the clear co-favorites.
That gap has nothing to do with Dončić. It reflects the difference between his supporting cast and theirs.
Then there’s the matchup that ended last season. The Lakers lost when a hamstring injury ruled Dončić out of the playoffs and Oklahoma City swept Los Angeles in the Western Conference semifinals. Losing a sweep without your best player says little about who wins at full strength.
Still, nothing the Lakers did this summer was clearly aimed at beating the Thunder or the Spurs. Health also counts against them: a hamstring strain, a playoff run missed, and a new roster that leans even harder on Dončić’s workload.
The Real Test Is the Trade Deadline
The Lakers are not a championship team as built. They’re a likely playoff team that could grab a top-four seed in a strong West, with the best player in almost any series below the conference finals.
Dončić’s window is open, since he’s 27 and signed through 2028. The roster isn’t there yet. His ad is pressure on the front office, and it should be read that way, not as a forecast.
One win over the Warriors doesn’t move any of this. Two things would change the verdict. The first is the Lakers playing at a top-two-seed pace into February with Dončić healthy, beating the Thunder and Spurs along the way.
The second is a deadline trade that brings in a real second creator or a stopper on the wing. Without one of those, “championship expectations” is a standard for judging Rob Pelinka in February, not a fair prediction for June.
The Prediction Markets Agree With the Sportsbooks
On Polymarket’s 2027 NBA Champion market, the Lakers were trading at 2% on opening night. Polymarket’s 2027 Western Conference Champion market had them at 5¢, behind Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Minnesota and Denver.
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