Luka Dončić had 45 points, a season-high 15 rebounds, six assists and five steals as the Los Angeles Lakers beat Toronto 131-125 on Sunday, Nov. 1. It was his fourth straight game scoring at least 35 points, and that streak raises the obvious question about whether he can keep it up. His scoring will hold. The bigger worry is what happens to the Lakers during the minutes he sits.
This Is Roughly the Player He Already Was
The scoring isn’t a hot streak hiding a lesser player. Last season Dončić averaged 33.5 points in 35.8 minutes across 64 games. Coming into Sunday he was averaging 35.8 minutes and 36.2 points over six games.
That is barely more playing time than last season and about three more points a night. His production comes from volume and free throws rather than some new trick: through six games he was getting to the line 8.4 times on 9.6 attempts a game, the kind of foul-drawing that does not disappear in November.
Sunday’s Shooting Was a Ceiling
The parts of the 45 that won’t repeat are easy to spot. He shot 12 for 23 on the night, going eight for 12 from three-point range, and he made all of his 13 free throws. Nobody makes two-thirds of his threes and every free throw over a full season.
Even his early-season average is running a little above his usual rate. Through six games he was hitting 39.1 percent from three, compared with 36.6 percent last season. He was also committing 5.2 turnovers a game, including 11 in a win over the Clippers.
Expect his scoring to settle in the low-to-mid 30s rather than climb into the 40s. That is a reason to expect a small dip, not a reason to think he is overachieving.
The Lakers Can’t Hold a Lead Without Him
The real problem is the stretches when he is off the floor. Against Toronto, the Lakers led 104-82 through three quarters before the Raptors got back into the game with Dončić on the bench. Toronto scored 43 in the final period, and a blowout ended as a six-point game.
Two nights earlier it was worse: the bench gave back a 25-point lead to Golden State in a 112-95 loss. That is two of the Lakers’ last three games in which a comfortable lead stopped being comfortable the moment the rotation changed.
A full night without Dončić was supposed to be this roster’s real adversity test. What the first seven games suggest is that the test arrives every game, in the eight or ten minutes a coach has to give him off.
The Bench, Not Dončić’s Workload, Is the Thing to Fix
Dončić can keep scoring like this. The Lakers are 5-2 because of it, and he is averaging about as many minutes as he did last season.
The problem is that JJ Redick cannot cut those minutes. If the bench cannot hold a lead, the Lakers cannot rest him across a long regular season, however good he is. The fix is a better bench, not asking less of Dončić.
He will be carrying them again on Monday night against the Miami Heat, the second half of a back-to-back. Watch the fourth quarters that start with him on the bench: if they keep going the way Sunday’s did, expect his minutes to climb rather than fall.
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